Americans are drowning in credit card debt as uncomfortably high inflation makes the cost of everyday necessities more expensive.
In the last three months of 2022, credit card balances increased by $61 billion to $986 billion, according to the New York Federal Reserve Bank's Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit published Thursday. That smashed the previous high of $927 billion, recorded before the COVID-19 pandemic began.
Total U.S. household debt, meanwhile, climbed to a record $16.9 trillion during the fourth quarter, an increase of 2.4% from the prior three-month period.
The latest data marks a major reversal from just two years ago when households were rapidly paying off credit card debt with the stimulus payments that they received during the pandemic. On top of that, fewer Americans were spending on big-ticket items like vacations because of the virus-induced lockdowns.
The rise in credit card usage and debt is particularly concerning because interest rates are astronomically high right now. The average credit card APR, or annual percentage rate, set a new record high of 19.14% last week, according to a Bankrate.com database that goes back to 1985. The previous record was 19% in July 1991.
"It’s triple trouble for credit card borrowers," Ted Rossman, senior industry analyst for Bankrate, said in a statement. "Balances are up, rates are up and more people are carrying credit card debt."
If people are carrying debt to compensate for steeper prices, they could end up paying more for items in the long run. For instance, if you owe $5,000 in debt — which the average American does — current APR levels would mean it would take about 191 months and $6,546 in interest to pay off the debt making the minimum payments.
By comparison, the 16.3% average rate at the beginning of the year would mean paying about $5,517 in interest and getting out of debt after 185 months.
At the end of 2022, some 18.3 million borrowers were behind on a credit card, according to the New York Fed analysis. There were about 15.8 million behind on a card in that same period two years ago.
While delinquency rates remain relatively small, there is an uptick in young borrowers who are struggling with credit card and auto loan payments. As of December, just 2.5% of outstanding debt was in some stage of delinquency, 2.2 percentage points lower than in 2019.
But the fact that there is any semblance of delinquency rates rising during such a strong labor market is concerning, the New York Fed researchers said. If the unemployment rate begins to raise — which many economists expect due to the aggressive monetary policy tightening underway by the U.S. central bank — that could be worrisome for consumer debt and delinquency levels.
"Although historically low unemployment has kept consumers’ financial footing generally strong, stubbornly high prices and climbing interest rates may be testing some borrowers’ ability to repay their debts," Wilbert van der Klaauw, economic research adviser at the New York Fed, said in a statement.
A recent report shows that incoming CEOs at S&P 500 companies are getting younger, and women are securing more of these top jobs.
The C-suite is taking on a new look: Newly appointed CEOs at S&P 500 companies are trending younger, and more women are joining their ranks.
A recent report from the global executive search and leadership consulting firm Spencer Stuart shows that the average age for new CEOs at S&P 500 companies dropped from 55.9 years old in 2021 to 53.8 years old in 2022--the largest year-over-year drop in more than two decades. Almost 30 percent of those CEOs are younger than 50.
This marks a notable departure from the pandemic years; the average age of CEOs at their appointment peaked in 2021. About one in six new CEOs were older than 60, which Spencer Stuart attributed to boards valuing "CEO candidates with more experience to draw on" to guide companies through turbulent times.
But these recent figures from large companies could indicate a broader shift in business priorities at the C-suite level. Though younger CEOs may lack experience, research supports the premise that they can increase innovation -- for instance, achieving more patent citations than their older counterparts.
Joelle K. Jay, executive coach and partner at the Leadership Research Institute, says that CEOs in the current business environment need "flexibility, resilience, energy, the ability to see things new, to be able to change the vision or to paint a picture of what's possible." She says these qualities might suit younger CEOs.
But the bigger seismic shift, in Jay's view, is the increase in women securing CEO positions. The Spencer Stuart report shows that 13 percent of new CEOs were women in 2022 compared with 6 percent in 2021. Women also held the top job in more than 10 percent of Fortune 500 companies in January 2023, a first in the list's decades-long history. While that representation remains disproportionately low, this recent data highlights the headway being made.
"Women are stepping up and saying, 'I've done the work. I have my business. I want to step in, and I want to make things happen.' It's very exciting," Jay says.
The current economy--with fears of recession, a slew of recent layoffs, yet a tight labor market--might favor older, more experienced CEOs again. Nevertheless, with more women leaders in place and a demonstrated preference shown toward younger CEOs, the Spencer Stuart report deems this data "a positive shift among boards away from 'the proven leader' (typically white and male) and toward high-potential leaders who are likely to drive outsize impact over a longer runway."
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With market conditions as uncertain as they are now, it may be prudent to have a long-term approach and turn to the experts for guidance.
Here are five stocks chosen by Wall Street’s top analysts, according to TipRanks, a platform that ranks analysts based on their past performances.
Wynn Resorts (WYNN) reported a higher-than-anticipated adjusted loss per share for the fourth quarter. Nonetheless, investors were pleased with the management’s commentary about better times ahead, backed by continued strength in Las Vegas and the reopening of Macao following China’s stringent Covid lockdowns.
Deutsche Bank analyst Carlo Santarelli thinks that the future margin profile of Wynn Macau is “underappreciated.” Moreover, he expects the company’s financial leverage reduction to be “swift and screen well throughout 2023.”
“Given the resurgence of Macau, the continued strength and near term visibility in Las Vegas, and what we view as stability at Encore Boston Harbor, our estimates for 2023 and 2024 are higher across each of the 3 geographies,” Santarelli said.
Santarelli also noted that the stock’s valuation is reasonable, as the company is still in the early stages of the Macao recovery cycle. Santarelli reiterated a buy rating and raised his price target for Wynn to $128 from $106. (See Wynn Blogger Opinions & Sentiment on TipRanks) Santarelli’s recommendation is worthy of consideration as he ranks 26th among more than 8,000 analysts tracked by TipRanks. Moreover, 67% of his ratings have been successful, generating a 21.7% average return per rating.
Burrito chain Chipotle Mexican Grill’s (CMG) lower-than-anticipated fourth-quarter results reflected the impact of inflation on consumer spending. However, the company assured investors that transaction trends turned positive in 2023, setting its comparable sales growth estimate in the high-single-digit range for the first quarter.
Chipotle plans to further expand its footprint, which stood at 3,187 restaurant locations at the end of 2022. It aims to open 255 to 285 new locations in 2023.
Baird analyst David Tarantino, who ranks 320 out of 8,346 analysts on TipRanks, lowered his 2023 earnings per share estimate following the lackluster fourth-quarter results and a lower-than-projected margin outlook for the first quarter. Nevertheless, Tarantino remains bullish on Chipotle.
“We came away with a view that management is taking the appropriate operational steps to drive structural improvements in traffic as 2023 unfolds, and we expect signs of progress on this front to help resolve the pricing/traffic debate and return the focus toward the significant economic value CMG can create via high-ROIC unit expansion,” Tarantino said The analyst reiterated a buy rating on Chipotle stock and raised the price target to $1,900 from $1,800. Sixty-six percent of Tarantino’s ratings have generated profits, with each one bringing in a 10.6% average return.
Social media behemoth Meta Platforms (META) is next on our list. Meta has rebounded this year after a disastrous run in 2022. Its problems last year were due to a slowdown in online advertising spend and the mounting losses of the company’s Reality Labs division — which includes its metaverse projects.
Despite weak earnings, the stock spiked in reaction to recent results, as investors cheered Meta’s cost control measures and a $40 billion increase in its share repurchase authorization. Meta already had nearly $11 billion remaining under its existing buyback plan.
Tigress Financial Partners analyst Ivan Feinseth highlighted that Meta’s “most valuable asset” is its huge and growing user base. Daily Active People or DAP (the number of people using at least one of the company’s core products — Facebook, WhatsApp, Instagram, or Messenger, every day) rose 5% to 2.96 billion in the fourth quarter.
Furthermore, Feinseth projects that Meta’s performance will be fueled by a “new, more cost-efficient data center structure” that is competent in supporting artificial intelligence (AI) and non-AI workloads.
Feinseth increased his price target for Meta to $285 from $260 and reiterated a buy rating as he believes it can outperform rivals due to its massive user base and the ability to generate significantly higher returns for advertisers. Feinseth currently stands at #126 among over 8,300 analysts on TipRanks. Moreover, 65% of his ratings have been successful, with each generating a 13.5% average return.
Digital transformation, the accelerated shift to the cloud and geopolitical tensions have triggered an increase in cyber threats, driving demand for cybersecurity companies like CyberArk (CYBR).
CyberArk, a leading cybersecurity company, has successfully transitioned from perpetual licenses to a subscription model — which has led to more reliable and predictable revenues.
Mizuho analyst Gregg Moskowitz noted the impressive 45% growth in CyberArk’s annual recurring revenue (ARR) as of 2022′s end and ARR growth outlook in the range of 28% to 30% by the end of 2023. The analyst also pointed out that CyberArk ended 2022 with more than 1,300 customers generating over $100,000 in ARR, up 40% compared to the prior year.
Moskowitz reiterated a buy rating on CyberArk stock and a $175 price target, saying, “We continue to view CYBR as a primary beneficiary of a heightened threat landscape that has amplified the need for privileged access and identity management.” He is also optimistic that CyberArk’s transition to a recurring revenue model will drive better financials. Moskowitz holds the 236th position among more than 8,000 analysts on TipRanks. His ratings have a 58% success rate, with each delivering an average return of 13.8%.
Semiconductor company Micron (MU) has been under pressure in recent quarters due to lower demand in several end-markets, particularly PCs. In the first quarter of fiscal 2023 (ended Dec. 1), the company’s revenue plunged 47% due to lower shipments and a steep decline in prices.
In response to tough business conditions, Micron has slashed its capital expenditure and has been taking initiatives to reduce costs. In December, the company announced that it would cut its workforce by nearly 10% in 2023 and suspend bonuses for the year. It has also suspended share repurchases for now.
Despite the ongoing challenges, Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh upgraded Micron to buy from hold and raised his price target to $72 from $48. Rakesh acknowledged that near-term headwinds remain due to high inventories, lower demand for PCs, handsets, servers and lower memory pricing. Nonetheless, he thinks that we are approaching a “cyclical bottom.”
Rakesh explained, “We believe memory sets up better for 2H23/2024E with supply/capex cuts, inventory correction behind, and a better pricing environment.” Rakesh ranks 73 out of more than 8,300 analysts on TipRanks, with a success rate of 61%. Each of his ratings has delivered a 19.7% average return.